THE OSCARS: Predictions

Here is the hard truth about Oscar predictions. For the most part, you are not going to win the pot by making inspired choices in the major categories. With a couple of notable exceptions, those are all pretty much sewn up already. So, don't be bold. Play it safe when you the know the general consensus is going in a particular direction. Just because you really loved Glenn Close in ALBERT NOBBS does not mean there is a genuine chance she will take the award tonight. Sentiment, at least when it comes to Oscar polls, is for losers.

Now, where you need to shine is in the smaller categories. Often times, nobody has even seen the nominees so with a little help from yours truly, perhaps we can get that money in your pocket by the time they call THE ARTIST as Best Picture. If we do win though, I expect 10% off the top.

(Click on any highlighted title for the original Black Sheep review.)

BEST PICTURE

Will Win: THE ARTIST
Should Win: THE ARTIST
Could Win: THE HELP, HUGO

Of the bunch, THE ARTIST is the most universally loved. It may not be the Best Picture amongst the nominees but it has less detractors than the rest and is truly a delight and deserving of the crown.

BEST ACTOR

Will Win: George Clooney for THE DESCENDANTS
Should Win: Jean Dujardin for THE ARTIST
Could Win: Jean Dujardin

Hollywood is in love with THE ARTIST and Dujardin is certainly a charmer. That said, I believe that Clooney, the early favourite for this honour, will still triumph. He is Hollywood royalty, has never won in this category and was at his best in THE DESCENDANTS. This is the closest race of the night.

BEST ACTRESS

Will Win: Viola Davis for THE HELP
Should Win: Viola Davis
Could Win: Meryl Streep for THE IRON LADY

Davis may have stumbled a little bit when she lost to Streep at the Golden Globes but even Streep seemed surprised by that. I believe the Academy will reward her tender performance in THE HELP but Streep is long overdue. What Streep has to do though is be her usual great self but in a better movie.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Will Win: Christopher Plummer for BEGINNERS
Should Win: Christopher Plummer
Could Win: No one ... maybe Max Von Sydow, but not really

Plummer has this one wrapped up and deservedly so. Von Sydow is his only competition and that's just because he's been around a lot longer than the other nominees.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Will Win: Octavia Spender for THE HELP
Should Win: Octavia Spencer
Could Win: Again, not really anyone, maybe Melissa McCarthy

Spencer has won every major award thrown at her. I do not expect her to miss out here. Chastain could have been a bigger threat if she was nominated for another movie.

BEST DIRECTOR

Will Win: Michel Hazanavicius for THE ARTIST
Should Win: Michel Hazanavicius
Could Win: Martin Scorsese for HUGO

Hazanavicius is the clear front runner here. He also took the Director's Guild Award and the Academy  tends to follow suit. Scorsese has a surprising amount of support for HUGO but he just won not too long ago, and for a much better film.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Will Win: MIDNIGHT IN PARIS
Should Win: A SEPARATION
Could Win: THE ARTIST

I think this is Woody's to lose. The Academy will want to recognize the success of MIDNIGHT IN PARIS somehow and this is the easiest way to do that. It isn't fully undeserving but he has done better, in my opinion. A sweep for THE ARTIST could derail this though.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Will Win: THE DESCENDANTS
Should Win: THE DESCENDANTS
Could Win: MONEYBALL

I loved the screenplay for THE DESCENDANTS and much like the Original Screenplay category, the Academy will want to reward Alexander Payne somehow for his latest and this seems like the most apt way. Early favourite, MONEYBALL could still come back so beware of balls out of left field.

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Will Win: A SEPARATION
Should Win: MONSIEUR LAZHAR
Could Win: IN DARKNESS

Being the only nominee with any love in any other category, Original Screenplay nominee, A SEPARATION, should continue its winning streak here. It's a fantastic film and I will be happy to see it win but I would love Canada to take it of course for MONSIEUR LAZHAR. Meanwhile, IN DARKNESS is a powerful underdog in this category.

ANIMATED FEATURE

Will Win: RANGO
Should Win: RANGO
Could Win: No competition

Admittedly, I have not seen the two smaller nominees in this category but who has? Aside from those, everything else in this category is too lame and populist to win. RANGO is a lock.

ANIMATED SHORT FILM

Will Win: A MORNING STROLL
Should Win: LA LUNA
Could Win: THE FANTASTIC FLYING BOOKS OF MR. MORRIS LESSMORE

I found A MORNING STROLL to be tight, concise and hilarious. I believe its commentary of the deterioration of society and courtesy will appeal to the Academy. That being said, the one about the flying books and how reading is sadly dying might take it. I hope it doesn't.

EDITING

Will Win: THE ARTIST
Should Win: HUGO
Could Win: HUGO

As THE ARTIST is poised for Best Picture, this category usually follows suit. That being said, HUGO is a much showier film and could easily triumph here. I am still betting on THE ARTIST though.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Will Win: THE TREE OF LIFE
Should Win: THE TREE OF LIFE
Could Win: HUGO, THE ARTIST

The one thing everyone can agree on when it comes to THE TREE OF LIFE is that it is gorgeous and breathtakingly so. It will not win anywhere else but there is nothing right with the world if it doesn't win here.

ART DIRECTION

Will Win: HUGO
Should Win: HUGO
Could Win: THE ARTIST

HUGO is the most nominated film this year and this is because it excels in the technical categories. It is a lushly elaborate production and I think it has this category in the bag.

COSTUME DESIGN

Will Win: THE ARTIST
Should Win: JANE EYRE
Could Win: W.E.

THE ARTIST is simple elegant and perfectly period so this category should get swept up with its momentum. Madonna's W.E. did take honours with the costume designers themselves though so she could be trouble.

MAKEUP

Will Win: THE IRON LADY
Should Win: THE IRON LADY
Could Win: ALBERT NOBBS

At the end of the day, making Streep look old should win out over making Close look like a man. This is primarily because Streep looks more genuinely old than Close looks genuinely like a man.

ORIGINAL SCORE

Will Win: THE ARTIST
Should Win: THE ARTIST
Could Win: HUGO

You try scoring a silent film! I'm pretty sure the Academy will recognize this undertaking unless HUGO seems to be gaining the favour of the night.

ORIGINAL SONG

Will Win: THE MUPPETS
Should Win: THE MUPPETS
Could Win: RIO

As there are only two nominees here (again, lame.), it is entirely possible RIO could take it over THE MUPPETS. Who else could? It won't though.

VISUAL EFFECTS

Will Win: THE RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES
Should Win: THE RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES
Could Win: HUGO

While no one could agree as to whether Andy Serkis deserved an Oscar nod for his role as Cesar the ape, everyone could agree he looked damn real.

SOUND MIXING and SOUND EDITING

Will Win: HUGO
Should Win: HUGO
Could Win: THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO

I lopped these two categories together because I just feel HUGO will take them both anyway. The film may not have the overall support but it does have the technical support for sure.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Will Win: PARADISE LOST 3: PURGATORY
Should Win: Cannot say
Could Win: PINA

I love documentaries but the one's I see never seem to be nominated. I have seen and loved PINA and Wim Wender's 3D dance film has a good chance at an upset but PARADISE LOST 3, about the West Memphis Three convicts, is certainly the most buzzed about.

DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

Will Win: Cant's say
Should Win: Can't say
Could Win: Can't say

Sorry, I have not seen nor do I know anything about these titles. I cannot know everything! I'm going with what the generally accepted industry odds are here: SAVING FACE

LIVE ACTION SHORT

Will Win: THE SHORE
Should Win: TUBA ATLANTIC
Could Win: PENTECOST

Of the five, THE SHORE, was the least interesting to me but it is the only one with a name director and actor. That should give it the edge.

That's all of them! For those of you throwing a party, don't forget to get people to guess what time the Oscars will end on their ballot.  It is the best way to break a tie.

Best of luck to all of you and enjoy the show!