Saturday, February 26, 2011

Black Sheep predicts The Academy Awards

Oscar weekend has finally arrived. I began my weekend's festivities last night with a panel discussion on the Oscars, on Montreal's CJAD show, Delmar at Night. (Click here for the audio.) I got to make my predictions in many of the major categories and chat up one of my favorite subjects on air, which is always just an incredible treat for me. And now the fun continues with my official Oscar predictions in all the categories. You can use them if you like in your Oscar poll but be forewarned, I do not always win the prize. This means you cannot come back crying to me if you lose using my suggestions. That said, I will want a 10% cut if you win.

And so, once again, here are the nominations for the 83rd annual Academy Awards ...

BEST PICTURE


Should Win: THE SOCIAL NETWORK

THE KING'S SPEECH is a beautiful film but it is simply easier to digest than THE SOCIAL NETWORK. One makes you feel good while the other makes you weary of where were headed. This should not be discounted when the king is inevitably crowned.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Javier Bardem in BIUTIFUL
Jeff Bridges in TRUE GRIT
Jesse Eisenberg in THE SOCIAL NETWORK
Colin Firth in THE KING'S SPEECH
James Franco in 127 HOURS

Will Win: Colin Firth
Should Win: Javier Bardem

I will applaud Firth's win because he is a fine actor who delivers a royal performance in THE KING'S SPEECH but he deserved to win last year for A SINGLE MAN. Bardem is simply heartbreaking in BIUTIFUL but the unexpected nod will have to be enough for him.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Annette Bening in THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT
Nicole Kidman in RABBIT HOLE
Jennifer Lawrence in WINTER'S BONE
Natalie Portman in BLACK SWAN
Michelle Williams in BLUE VALENTINE

Will Win: Natalie Portman
Should Win: Natalie Portman

Although, my heart goes out to Annette Bening. She keeps bringing out these incredible performances in years when one other lady just happens to be getting a little more attention than she is.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Christian Bale in THE FIGHTER
John Hawkes in WINTER'S BONE
Jeremy Renner in THE TOWN
Mark Ruffalo in THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT
Geoffrey Rush in THE KING'S SPEECH

Will Win: Christian Bale
Should Win: Christian Bale

Geoffrey Rush could very seriously pull an upset here. He is invigorating in THE KING'S SPEECH and the film clearly has a great deal of support. Bale is transformed in THE FIGHTER though. He is also long overdue.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Amy Adams in THE FIGHTER
Helena Bonham Carter in THE KING'S SPEECH
Melissa Leo in THE FIGHTER
Hailee Steinfeld in TRUE GRIT
Jacki Weaver in ANIMAL KINGDOM

Will Win: Melissa Leo
Should Win: Melissa Leo

There is serious talk that Leo and Amy Adams will split the vote for roles in the same film, leaving Hailee Steinfeld to come through. This will be my biggest Oscar upset if this happens. Hopefully, common sense will prevail. They were just ads, people!

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING

Darren Aronofsky for BLACK SWAN
Ethan Coen, Joel Coen for TRUE GRIT
David Fincher for THE SOCIAL NETWORK
Tom Hooper for THE KING'S SPEECH
David O. Russell for THE FIGHTER

Will Win: David Fincher
Should Win: David Fincher

Tom Hooper won the Director's Guild Award and has that great KING'S SPEECH momentum behind him so he could upset but this is only his first nomination. Fincher has been making great films in Hollywood for years. I would have said that Christopher Nolan had the best chances but somehow, he failed to get a nomination. Bizarre.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY


Should Win: THE KING'S SPEECH

INCEPTION and THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT are serious contenders here. The Academy might want to reward Nolan here for their director gaffe and he did also win the Writer's Guild Award. Still, David Seidler's script for THE KING'S SPEECH is fresh and unexpected and my guess is will be swept up with the support for the film.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY


Should Win: THE SOCIAL NETWORK

This one is a lock. Check it off right now. Don't even think about it. Done. Move on already.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON

Will Win: TOY STORY 3
Should Win: TOY STORY 3

Another lock. We're done here.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

DOGTOOTH
IN A BETTER WORLD
INCENDIES
OUTSIDE THE LAW

Will Win: BIUTIFUL

I can't really say what should win here as I have not seen all five nominees. I can say that BIUTIFUL obviously has strong support as it has a Best Actor nod as well and is an incredible movie. I did not love INCENDIES but I would still be thrilled to see Montreal's Denis Villeneuve take the Oscar!

CINEMATOGRAPHY


Will Win: TRUE GRIT
Should Win: THE SOCIAL NETWORK

All five nominees are visually stunning and THE KING'S SPEECH could always sweep here too but TRUE GRIT cinematographer, Roger Deakins, has been nominated nine times now and has never won. This would be a good year for him to do so.

EDITING


Should Win: THE SOCIAL NETWORK

All that going back and forth in space and time between the past and two simultaneous lawsuits should do the trick here.

ART DIRECTION

ALICE IN WONDERLAND

Will Win: ALICE IN WONDERLAND

I just keep thinking those Harry Potter movies keep getting better looking each year. I would love to see THE KING'S SPEECH take it though considering the recent accusations that they used the same set as a gay porn film.

COSTUME DESIGN

ALICE IN WONDERLAND
I AM LOVE
THE TEMPEST

Will Win: ALICE IN WONDERLAND
Should Win: ALICE IN WONDERLAND

If Tim Burton's mess has one thing going for it, it's outlandish costume work.

MAKEUP

THE WAY BACK

Will Win: THE WOLFMAN
Should Win: BARNEY'S VERSION

If only because BARNEY'S VERSION makeup artist, Adrien Morot is from Montreal. It was a great job too. Also, THE WOLFMAN should not win an Oscar.

ORIGINAL SCORE

HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON

Should Win: THE SOCIAL NETWORK

I'm thrown with this category. Apparently THE SOCIAL NETWORK score is too modern for the Academy. Why then am I reading that Alexandre Desplat will take it for THE KING'S SPEECH when the obvious second choice is Hans Zimmer for INCEPTION?

ORIGINAL SONG

"If I Rise" from 127 HOURS
"Coming Home" from COUNTRY STRONG
"I See the Light" from TANGLED
"We Belong Together" from TOY STORY 3

Will Win: 127 HOURS

The Academy has clearly shown its love for A.R. Rahman and I don't see it stopping anytime soon.

SOUND MIXING


Will Win: INCEPTION
Should Win: INCEPTION

No contest. Maybe THE SOCIAL NETWORK. Big maybe though.

SOUND EDITING

UNSTOPPABLE

Will Win: INCEPTION
Should Win: INCEPTION

This time, no contest at all.

VISUAL EFFECTS

ALICE IN WONDERLAND

Will Win: INCEPTION
Should Win: INCEPTION

Please. They folded a city in half.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

EXIT THROUGH THE GIFT SHOP
GASLAND
INSIDE JOB
RETREPO
WASTE LAND

Will Win: INSIDE JOB

The insider trading documentary about the financial meltdown has the relevant edge but I sure am hoping Banksy takes it for EXIT THROUGH THE GIFT SHOP. I want to see art happen on stage or people in monkey masks circling Anne Hathaway and James Franco.

DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

KILLING IN THE NAME
POSTER GIRL
STRANGERS NO MORE
SUN COME UP
THE WARRIORS OF QUIGANG

What might win: KILLING IN THE NAME

I have seen none of these so I am fully going on what I am reading online here.

ANIMATED SHORT FILM

DAY & NIGHT
THE GRUFFALO
LET'S POLLUTE
THE LOST THING
MADAGASCAR, A JOURNEY DIARY

Will Win: DAY & NIGHT

I am reading a potential upset by THE GRUFFALO or LET'S POLLUTE sounds interesting but my fingers are crossed for this simple and original Pixar short.

LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM

THE CONFESSION
THE CRUSH
GOD WE LOVE
NA WEWE
WISH 143

Will Win: NA WEWE

My gut is telling me this way but I hear THE CONFESSION has a shot too.

There you have it. My official predications for this year's Oscars. Well, they are official for now. I might change my mind at the last second. As long as the ballots are in before the first award is announced, it is fair game.

I am to spend the rest of the day watching some Oscar nominated classics and relaxing. Check back tomorrow for my annual Oscar mix CD tracklisting. Let Black Sheep set the mood for your pre-show party ...

Good luck with those polls!
at

1 comment:

  1. Dan O.11:41 pm

    As much as I would kill for Nolan to win for screenplay, the fact remains the Academy has an unreasonable hard on for The King's Speech so original screenplay will probably go to that movie rather Inception, despite it should win. Check out my list and opinions when you can!

    ReplyDelete